Le 25 février, c’était au tour de l’ambassadeur d’Azerbaïdjan, Rafael Ibrahimov, de venir parler à l’université de Linköping. Si c’est un sujet qui vous titille le cerveau, voici les propos qu’il a tenu lors de la conférence et qui portent sur le conflict de Nagorny-Karabakh, l'oléoduc de Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan et le futur du projet Nabucco. Comme pour n’importe quoi en relations internationales, il faut prendre un certain recul en lisant les propos de l’ambassadeur, car personne n’est neutre quand vient le temps d’aborder des enjeux sensibles. De plus, j’ai rapporté les propos tels quel, en anglais (j'étais trop paresseuse pour traduire!) et donc je vous fais remarquer que la présentation manque parfois de cohérence. C’est pourquoi j’ai inclus quelques hyperliens dans le texte pour ceux qui aimeraient obtenir une mise en contexte ou sinon plus de renseignements.
Rafael Ibrahimov, ambassadeur d'Azerbaïdjan
"In 1991, Azerbaijan acquired its independence. In 1992, there was a tragedy in Nagorny-Karabakh: the Khojaly Massacre. On the 25th of February, almost a 1000 people were massacred by the Armenia army, and there were 200 more killed on the 16th of March. On the 3rd of March, BBC news reported that 100 dead bodies were found, having been shot from a close-range. The atrocities of 1992 have psychologically scarred the Azeri population. 613 people were killed, 63 children, 106 women, 70 elderly, while some were injured and other missing. This was a genocide perpetrated by Armenia.
The economy in 1992-93: it was bad because the car plants that produced cars during the Soviet time suffered from the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1993, the national leader sorted out the situation by establishing internal stability within the country:
1) Economic stability;
2) Internal stability;
3) Bring to an end the Armenian occupation.
Unfortunately, Azerbaijan was not strong enough to face the Armenian aggression in May 1994.
Regarding economic recovery, Azerbaijan was well-known for its natural resources (gas and oil). To restore that sector would have been a good thing but much of the reserves had already been depleted during Soviet times. In September 1994, there was a contract between Azerbaijan and major oil companies led by BP. There were production sharing agreements and twenty various structures to be developed.
Going back in time, in 1873, the eldest of the Nobel brothers came to Baku to buy timber. He was enticed by the oil and gas sector when they got there, and purchased a refinery. He saw that it was a promising time to invest in that sector.
For example, to bring kerosene from the US to Georgia, there are 5000 miles to cover, while there are only 350 miles between Baku and Tsibili. But still, it’s cheaper to import from the US.
The first transport corridor was built for oil, and that was achieved through the construction of a railway. The Nobel brothers played a positive role.
The same situation arose in the 1990s. When oil was discovered in the Caspian sea, there were two pipelines. One was very busy, and this route was the northern one, while the other pipeline was the western route. The capacity of that one wasn’t very big, and an idea was conceived to build another pipeline. It was very nebulous at first, and some of the partners of Azerbaijan were skeptical. The infrastructure of the project was the largest military project of Azerbaijan.
The pipeline went through Georgia and Turkey. It benefited both those countries as well as Azerbaijan.
There is currently no cooperation with Armenia, not even indirectly. As long as the territories of Azerbaijan are under Armenia occupation, there will be no cooperation.
The conflict is dealt with by France, Russia and the US. They provided co-chairs, arranged meetings between ministers of foreign affaires to find a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
The Moscow declaration signed in 2008 is an important document. But Armenians interpret it differently from the international community. There are four resolutions from the United Nations demanding that Armenians retrieve their troops from the Azerbaijan territories.
There is a serious clash of principles. Azerbaijan will never agree on a decision that dissolves the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Armenia has self-determined itself as a state, and it is now trying to create yet another state at the expense of Azerbaijan territory.
The most sacred part of Azerbaijan’s territory is occupied now. It must be given back to Azerbaijan. We hope for a peaceful solution. Relations are going on for a very long time.
From 2006 to 2008, the economic growth of Azerbaijan: a 60% increase in GDP per annum. The economic crisis has not affected the Azerbaijan economy.
Oil prices have gone down, but Azerbaijan is trying to diversify its economy, not just in the energy sector, which otherwise would lead to the “Dutch disease”. Azerbaijan is one of the most prosperous countries of the region.
Q&A
What has been achieved to resolve the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict?
If we look five years back, not much has been achieved to solve the conflict. There has been destruction of much of Azerbaijan’s architectural heritage, such as museums, cultural sites, etc. Azerbaijan has tried to get attention from the international community in an attempt to salvage what is left.
A list of all damaged areas exists, and it represents millions of dollars of damages. But it’s not about money. Even if the money is returned, the cultural heritage cannot be.
The population of Nagorny-Karabakh is mostly Armenian, but the adjacent regions are not, and the Armenian army holds these regions hostage as a buffer zone. There has been ethnic cleansing, and there are no more Azeri people. Who knows what the population of Nagorny-Karabakh wants, there are some many refugees. Of course opinions should be heard, but this is still part of Azerbaijan territory.
How successful has been the EU neighbourhood policy in Azerbaijan?
The new EU neighbourhood policy has not been very successful in Azerbaijan. But there have been joint initiatives, eastern partnerships. It works well. This program targets three areas (it’s very pragmatic). It enables every country to cooperate on a face-to-face level and is more bilateral than multilateral.
Why is the conflict so hard to resolve?
Regarding the conflict, the president of Armenia has participated to the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict, so he is obviously not about to hand over the region after fighting within the Armenian troops, which means the issue is that much harder to solve.
If the region is returned to Azerbaijan, it could become an autonomous region."
Voilà! Moi, j’ai trouvé ça intéressant parce qu'en toute honnêteté, j’ai beau étudier les relations internationales, je n’étais pas au courant des détails concernant le conflit entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan, et ce n’est pas comme si ça continuait à faire la une des journaux (ce n'est pas une excuse, je l'avoue). D’ailleurs, l’ambassadeur a mentionné qu’il avait peur du fait que la communauté internationale commence à oublier ce contentieux et que par conséquent, les chances de résoudre le conflit à Nagorny-Karabakh soient de plus en plus minces. Il n'a pas tort, et ça ne sera certainement pas facile à résoudre...
Rafael Ibrahimov, ambassadeur d'Azerbaïdjan
"In 1991, Azerbaijan acquired its independence. In 1992, there was a tragedy in Nagorny-Karabakh: the Khojaly Massacre. On the 25th of February, almost a 1000 people were massacred by the Armenia army, and there were 200 more killed on the 16th of March. On the 3rd of March, BBC news reported that 100 dead bodies were found, having been shot from a close-range. The atrocities of 1992 have psychologically scarred the Azeri population. 613 people were killed, 63 children, 106 women, 70 elderly, while some were injured and other missing. This was a genocide perpetrated by Armenia.
The economy in 1992-93: it was bad because the car plants that produced cars during the Soviet time suffered from the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1993, the national leader sorted out the situation by establishing internal stability within the country:
1) Economic stability;
2) Internal stability;
3) Bring to an end the Armenian occupation.
Unfortunately, Azerbaijan was not strong enough to face the Armenian aggression in May 1994.
Regarding economic recovery, Azerbaijan was well-known for its natural resources (gas and oil). To restore that sector would have been a good thing but much of the reserves had already been depleted during Soviet times. In September 1994, there was a contract between Azerbaijan and major oil companies led by BP. There were production sharing agreements and twenty various structures to be developed.
Going back in time, in 1873, the eldest of the Nobel brothers came to Baku to buy timber. He was enticed by the oil and gas sector when they got there, and purchased a refinery. He saw that it was a promising time to invest in that sector.
For example, to bring kerosene from the US to Georgia, there are 5000 miles to cover, while there are only 350 miles between Baku and Tsibili. But still, it’s cheaper to import from the US.
The first transport corridor was built for oil, and that was achieved through the construction of a railway. The Nobel brothers played a positive role.
The same situation arose in the 1990s. When oil was discovered in the Caspian sea, there were two pipelines. One was very busy, and this route was the northern one, while the other pipeline was the western route. The capacity of that one wasn’t very big, and an idea was conceived to build another pipeline. It was very nebulous at first, and some of the partners of Azerbaijan were skeptical. The infrastructure of the project was the largest military project of Azerbaijan.
The pipeline went through Georgia and Turkey. It benefited both those countries as well as Azerbaijan.
There is currently no cooperation with Armenia, not even indirectly. As long as the territories of Azerbaijan are under Armenia occupation, there will be no cooperation.
The conflict is dealt with by France, Russia and the US. They provided co-chairs, arranged meetings between ministers of foreign affaires to find a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
The Moscow declaration signed in 2008 is an important document. But Armenians interpret it differently from the international community. There are four resolutions from the United Nations demanding that Armenians retrieve their troops from the Azerbaijan territories.
There is a serious clash of principles. Azerbaijan will never agree on a decision that dissolves the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Armenia has self-determined itself as a state, and it is now trying to create yet another state at the expense of Azerbaijan territory.
The most sacred part of Azerbaijan’s territory is occupied now. It must be given back to Azerbaijan. We hope for a peaceful solution. Relations are going on for a very long time.
From 2006 to 2008, the economic growth of Azerbaijan: a 60% increase in GDP per annum. The economic crisis has not affected the Azerbaijan economy.
Oil prices have gone down, but Azerbaijan is trying to diversify its economy, not just in the energy sector, which otherwise would lead to the “Dutch disease”. Azerbaijan is one of the most prosperous countries of the region.
Q&A
What has been achieved to resolve the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict?
If we look five years back, not much has been achieved to solve the conflict. There has been destruction of much of Azerbaijan’s architectural heritage, such as museums, cultural sites, etc. Azerbaijan has tried to get attention from the international community in an attempt to salvage what is left.
A list of all damaged areas exists, and it represents millions of dollars of damages. But it’s not about money. Even if the money is returned, the cultural heritage cannot be.
The population of Nagorny-Karabakh is mostly Armenian, but the adjacent regions are not, and the Armenian army holds these regions hostage as a buffer zone. There has been ethnic cleansing, and there are no more Azeri people. Who knows what the population of Nagorny-Karabakh wants, there are some many refugees. Of course opinions should be heard, but this is still part of Azerbaijan territory.
How successful has been the EU neighbourhood policy in Azerbaijan?
The new EU neighbourhood policy has not been very successful in Azerbaijan. But there have been joint initiatives, eastern partnerships. It works well. This program targets three areas (it’s very pragmatic). It enables every country to cooperate on a face-to-face level and is more bilateral than multilateral.
Why is the conflict so hard to resolve?
Regarding the conflict, the president of Armenia has participated to the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict, so he is obviously not about to hand over the region after fighting within the Armenian troops, which means the issue is that much harder to solve.
If the region is returned to Azerbaijan, it could become an autonomous region."
Voilà! Moi, j’ai trouvé ça intéressant parce qu'en toute honnêteté, j’ai beau étudier les relations internationales, je n’étais pas au courant des détails concernant le conflit entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan, et ce n’est pas comme si ça continuait à faire la une des journaux (ce n'est pas une excuse, je l'avoue). D’ailleurs, l’ambassadeur a mentionné qu’il avait peur du fait que la communauté internationale commence à oublier ce contentieux et que par conséquent, les chances de résoudre le conflit à Nagorny-Karabakh soient de plus en plus minces. Il n'a pas tort, et ça ne sera certainement pas facile à résoudre...
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